Earth
El Niño Winter 2026–27: Who Gets Snow, Who Gets Rain?
A very strong El Niño was building in the Pacific heading into winter 2026–27. The Short explains how warm central-Pacific water nudges the jet stream south, typically making the southern US wetter and the north milder with less snow, while the East Coast can see big snowstorms. It warns that El Niño only tilts the odds, pointing to 2015–16 when Southern California stayed slightly dry.
The numbers
- NOAA put an 83% chance on this event beating every El Niño since 1950 for Oct–Dec.
- That NOAA estimate was issued on 8 October 2026.
- In 2015–16 a very strong El Niño still left Southern California a bit drier than normal.
Sources cited in the video: NOAA Climate Prediction Center · NOAA climate.gov · National Weather Service · Journal of Climate · NASA Blue Marble
