Earth
Why the Pacific Is Running a Fever
Trade winds normally pile warm water up near Indonesia, but every few years they slacken and that warm water sloshes back east across the Pacific. The Short explains this El Niño cycle, how Peruvian fishermen first noticed it, and why the 2026 event could rival or beat the strongest on record.
The numbers
- At its peak, a band of the Pacific runs about 3°C warmer than usual.
- Normally the sea near Indonesia sits about half a metre higher than off Ecuador.
- The 1876–78 El Niño helped trigger famines that killed an estimated 30–60 million.
- NOAA's 10 Sept 2026 update gave a 75% chance this event beats every El Niño since 1950.
- Past peaks on the Oceanic Niño Index: 2.2 (1982–83), 2.4 (1997–98), 2.6 (2015–16).
Sources cited in the video: NOAA Climate Prediction Center · NOAA PMEL · NASA Earth Observatory · UK Met Office · NOAA Coral Reef Watch
